Years of Growth
Credit Rating by
Orange Co School Board COP
2028-2032 Pxg Tue 4/20 AF NR AA
2022-2032 2034 Pxg Tue 4/20 Aaa (PSF) Underlying A+ (S&P)
New York City HDC
2024-2033 2036 2041 2046 2051 2056 2060 Rtl Op Tue 4/20 Pxg Wed 4/21 Aa2 AA+
Achieving New Levels of Performance in a Year of Uncertainty and Volatility
A small, fledgling minority-owned firm that opened its doors in 1971 with just a handful of clients is celebrating a half century on Wall Street, growing to 11 regional offices nationwide and serving as lead manager on $40 billion in the last decade.
CREDIT AND MARKET STRATEGY
MUNICIPAL MARKET WEEKLY
April 19, 2021
The S&P 500 and DJIA again posted record highs while Treasury yields declined as economic data and first quarter earnings from the largest banks surprised to the upside. Oil prices rose. CPI through March was slightly better than expected at +2.6% y/y with core CPI at +1.6% y/y, indicating that higher inflation remains mostly contained. US headline retail sales in March were up +9.8% m/m on stimulus and economic reopening while initial jobless claims fell to a 13-month low at 576k in the week ended April 10. Bank earnings for 1Q20 were significantly better than estimates, driven in part by release of some pandemic-related loan loss reserves.
Munis gained in sympathy with Treasuries and again outperformed on a light tax-exempt calendar and another torrent of fund inflows. New issue of $7.3 bil. was manageable and well-received led by issues from PA Econ Dev Fin Auth, CA Public Works, and State of Delaware. About $4.9 bil., or only 67.5% of new issue was tax-exempt. Fund inflows on the week were an all-time weekly record of +$2.25 bil. (+$22 bil. YTD) as investors continue to pour money into the asset class on the prospect of higher taxes.
SAMUEL A. RAMIREZ & COMPANY, INC.
FINANCIAL STRATEGIES GROUP – March 2021
Please find attached Ramirez & Co.’s Macroeconomic Outlook. In our report, we continue to monitor the US economy, global events and the Fed’s outlook on the economy and rates:
• The Covid-19 virus is slowing down and vaccination in the US is picking up. In all likelihood, the economy will follow Covid-19’s and the vaccination’s path
• The FOMC forecasts 2021 GDP to expand by 6.5%, contrasted with its December forecast of a 4.2% increase. And, the Fed forecaststhat real GDP will grow by 3.3% and 2.2% in 2022 and 2023, respectively, all well-above its 1.8% of sustainable longer-run growth
• The Fed funds rate remains unchanged at 0%-0.25%, and will remain as such, through 2023, according to the median FOMC estimate. The longer run Fed funds rate remains at 2.5%.
• For the foreseeable future, the Fed will continue its large-scale asset purchases (LSAP) at least at the current pace –$80 billion per month in Treasury securities and $40 billion per month in mortgage-backed securities
Members of our Financial Strategies Group, Niso Abuaf, Konstantin Semyonov and Duncan Sinclair, would be happy to discuss further any of the material with you.Full Quarterly Report