Company News


Municipal

New Issues

4/23/18
$803,280,000
Texas Water Dev Board
2018-2032 2033 2034 Pxg Tue 4/24 NR AAA AAA SWIRFT Credit
4/23/18
$208,195,000
San Antonio Water Sys
2019-2038 2043 2048 Pxg Thur 4/26 AA2 AA AA
4/23/18
$118,305,000
Connecticut HFA
2021-2029 2033 2043 2045 2018-2026 2039 2048 (AMT) Rtl Op Tue 4/24 Pxg Wed 4/25 AAA AAA NR
4/23/18
$413,130,000
Port Auth of NY & NJ
2019-2038 Rtl Op Tue 4/24 Pxg Wed 4/25 AA3 AA- AA-
4/23/18
$1,366,980,000
New York Trans Dev Corp
2024-2034 2038 Pxg Tue 4/24 BAA3 NR BBB- Delta Airlines

Capital Markets

New Issues

Debt

4/3/2018
$2.5B - Charter Communications Inc. - CoMgr

3/27/2018
$500MM - Realty Income Corp. - CoMgr

3/22/2018
$600MM - Mississippi Power - CoMgr
$1B - Prudential Financial - CoMgr

3/19/2018
$500MM - Connecticut Light & Power - CoMgr
$2.5B - AIG - CoMgr

Equity

Insights

CREDIT AND MARKET STRATEGY
MUNICIPAL MARKET WEEKLY

April 16, 2018

Treasuries declined and the curve ultimately bear flattened to a decade low as the market overcame geopolitical risks stemming from the Syria missile strike that occurred on Friday. Munis outperformed across the curve on continued negative net supply and muted fund flows. A raft of risk-on sentiments took center stage in financial markets last week, including allayed fears of...

The week began with a Congressional Budget Office report that the US budget deficit will exceed $1 trillion two years earlier than previously estimated (2020 vs 2022) due primarily to effects of the 2017 tax cut. The renewed deficit projection fueled concerns about additional US Treasury supply and higher rates. China President Xi’s speech on Tuesday ultimately eased...

Despite the out-performance of Munis vs Treasuries last week, all is not well in the short-term Muni market. SIFMA reset higher on Wed by an astounding +12 bps to 1.72% from 1.60% the prior week, moving +6 ratios vs 1M Libor (1.89%) to about 90%. SIFMA is now 105%, or +9 bps higher vs 1yr MMD (1.63%). The SIFMA rate, which is the highest on an absolute basis since 2008, is being driven by...

Last week’s Muni out-performance vs Treasuries richened relative value in 10yrs (3.3 ratios to 84%) but maintained a “fairly valued” reading for 2, 5, and 30 yrs (barely) vs 3yr averages (see below). We have been saying for months that Munis need to first get cheaper before ultimately strengthening on a relative value basis. However, unless...

Last week’s $4.8 billion calendar ($3.8 billion in negotiated offerings) was well received, with strong retail support, led by $913.6 million NYC GO priced on Wednesday after a 2-day retail order period which generated $325 million of retail.  Institutionally repriced with bumps ranging from 1-6bps on maturities 2028-2046. Clark County priced $645 million on Wednesday and was repriced with bumps of...

Full Weekly Report

Quarterly Review

SAMUEL A. RAMIREZ & COMPANY, INC.
QUARTERLY MACROECONOMIC OUTLOOK
FINANCIAL STRATEGIES GROUP – 1st QUARTER 2018

Dear Clients,

Please find attached Ramirez & Co.’s Quarterly Macroeconomic Outlook. In our report, we continue to monitor the US economy, global events and the Fed’s outlook on the economy and rates:

  • Threats of trade wars and actual wars rattle markets, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones hovering around correction territory.  Market stress indicators spike but then settle down at slightly heightened levels.
  • The markets, primary dealers and Fed economists show small divergence regarding forecasts of the Fed Funds rate for 2018.   Primary dealers generally see three remaining hikes, the markets two or possibly three hikes, and the Fed economists just about split on two or three hikes.
  • The US Treasury yield curve flattens significantly since December 2015, as the Fed raises its target rate six times, but with little change in 30Y bond yields.  Corporate spreads during this time also tighten to near pre-crisis levels.  However, as turmoil hits the markets, longer-term rates decline slightly from recent highs and spreads widen slightly.  In the long term, primary dealers forecast continued flattening.

    Members of our Financial Strategies Group, Niso Abuaf, Konstantin Semyonov and Duncan Sinclair, would be happy to discuss further any of the material with you.

    Full Quarterly Report
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