CREDIT AND MARKET STRATEGY
MUNICIPAL MARKET WEEKLY
October 15, 2018
Mutual fund outflows and rich valuations caused Municipals to sell off throughout the week in contrast with Treasuries which rallied on risk-down sentiment reflecting lower-than-expected Sept CPI reading and strong auctions for over $200 bil. of UST supply. CPI for Sept was 0.1% vs 0.2% expectation, the second consecutive month of consumer prices missing expectations and signaling to the market that the Fed likely...
Treasury 2s30s bull flattened on the week by 3 bps to end at 48 bps after yields declined by 3 bps in 2yrs, 6 bps in 5yrs, 7 bps in 10yrs, and 7 bps in 30yrs, resulting in a Treasury index gain of +52 bps (-205 bps YTD). Munis underperformed Treasuries across the curve by an average of 2.77 ratios as MMD 2s30s bear steepened 4 bps to 136 bps after cuts of 2 bps in 2yrs, 2 bps in 5yrs, 5 bps in 10yrs, and 6 bps in 30yrs. The S&P Main Muni Index posted a weekly loss of...
The Muni sell-off last week created more attractive entry points for institutional investors as ratios across the curve improved dramatically after last week’s underperformance (see pg. 4). We will continue to monitor mutual fund flows for any additional significant mutual fund outflows, as continued selling by investors would put more pressure on an already overburdened secondary market. Bid-wanted lists were 55% above average with...
Given the negative forecast for rates and projected lower total returns across fixed-income generally, we think it makes sense for investors to adhere to a...
Muni gross supply is expected to increase to $12.9 billion, or ~2x the 12-week moving average. The negotiated space is led by $1.2 bil. ProMedica, $1.2 bil. NYC TFA BARBs (Ramirez Senior), $850 mil. Connecticut St Spl Tax, $845 mil. Salt Lake Airport, and $667 mil. Essentia Health. The competitive space is led by $866 mil. State of California. Total gross supply YTD is...
The market will continue to track a plethora of data points, including, most importantly, equities and corporate earnings, geopolitical...
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SAMUEL A. RAMIREZ & COMPANY, INC.
QUARTERLY MACROECONOMIC OUTLOOK
FINANCIAL STRATEGIES GROUP – 2nd QUARTER 2018
Please find attached Ramirez & Co.’s Quarterly Macroeconomic Outlook. In our report, we continue to monitor the US economy, global events and the Fed’s outlook on the economy and rates:
- Almost a decade after the onset of the Great Contraction of 2007 – 2009, the Fed deserves an “honorable mention” for achieving its dual mandate of full employment and price stability – the cries of naysayers notwithstanding.
- And now, the Fed is on to its next phase of gradually raising the federal funds rate to around 3% and passively contracting its balance sheet.
- Market participants who are bullish on the economy think that 10Y Treasuries will move up to a fair-value yield of 4% as the term premium rises, while forecasters who are bearish on the economy think that the 10Y yield will move around an anchor of 3%, possibly because of still expanding foreign Central Bank balance sheets and strong global demand for safe assets.
- Risks on the horizon entail rising US debt-to-GDP levels, financial market distress due to “trade wars” or “overpriced assets,” pressures on the short end of the yield curve primarily due to increased US Treasury funding needs and worries about a flat or an inverting yield curve signaling an impending recession.
- The question remains whether the Fed will be able to smoothly navigate around the risks mentioned above. Consensus is emerging that the Fed’s balance sheet will not contract as sharply as initially expected.
Members of our Financial Strategies Group, Niso Abuaf, Konstantin Semyonov and Duncan Sinclair, would be happy to discuss further any of the material with you.
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