January 8, 2018
Market technicals are lining up constructively for Jan and should ultimately be price supportive as strong reinvestment against lower supply kicks in (Jan effect). However, for the time being we are cautious on the market, concerned about still-low absolute rates, tight credit spreads (pg 3), and compressed ratios (e.g. 5yrs @73%). Trading accounts, which ...
Municipals outperformed Treasuries through five years and underperformed in 10yrs and 30yrs as both markets kicked off 2018. MMD 2s30s was 6 bps steeper at 104 bps while the Treasury 2s30s was 4 bps flatter at 84 bps. Several factors were at play that caused the divergent results. Last week’s...
Muni new issue supply took a breather last week and is off to a slow start this week, which is typical for January, but particularly striking after Dec’s monster $62 bil. (a record) calendar that came ahead of monumental tax code revisions that banned advance refundings as of Jan 1. As mentioned, the Muni “January effect” is again operative despite the current 30-day visible supply of -$10 bil. We expect gross supply...Full Weekly Report
Please find attached Ramirez & Co.’s Quarterly Macroeconomic Outlook. In our report, we continue to monitor the US economy, global events and the Fed’s outlook on the economy and rates:
Members of our Financial Strategies Group, Niso Abuaf, Konstantin Semyonov and Duncan Sinclair, would be happy to discuss further any of the material with you.Full Quarterly Report