Company News


Municipal

New Issues

12/11/17
$508,545,000
District of Columbia
Co-Senior Serials 2020-2038 Term 2042
12/11/17
$81,885,000
Mass St College Bldg Auth
Co-Manager Serials 2019-2038 (TE) Serials 2019-2032 Term 2038 (Txble)
12/11/17
$479,655,000
Virginia College Bldg Auth
Co-Manager Serials 2018-2031
12/11/17
$153,515,000
New York HFA Affordable Hsg
Co-Manager Serials 2019-2028 Terms 2032 2037 2042 2047 2050
12/11/17
$122,885,000
Drexel University
Co-Manager Serials 2018-2037 Term 2041

Capital Markets

New Issues

Debt

12/5/2017
$300m - Duke Realty - CoMgr
$875m - Springleaf Finance - CoMgr

11/30/2017
$400m - New England Power - CoMgr

11/29/2017
$1.3b - Realty Income Corp - CoMgr
$300m - UDR Inc. - CoMgr
$400m - DR Horton - CoMgr

Equity

Insights

CREDIT AND MARKET STRATEGY
MUNICIPAL MARKET WEEKLY

December 4, 2017

The Changing Curve

The Kubler-Ross Change Curve, also known as the “five stages of grief,” is a widely accepted decision model consisting of the various levels of emotions experienced by a person who is soon going to experience grief. The curve is comprised of various emotions, including shock and denial, frustration, depression, experiment, and integration. Muni market investors went through all five stages of the Kubler-Ross change curve last week as the Senate machinated over tax reform legislation that, together with the recently passed House legislation, will likely...

On Mon-Wed the market responded to the expected supply surge through FYE17 -- with this week estimated at $19.4 bil. and consisting of 43 transactions in excess of $100 mil. – as it normally would to outsized supply -- by selling bonds across the curve at cheaper levels. At COB on Wed, MMD had been cut -15 bps in 5yrs, -12 bps in 10yrs and -9bps in 30yrs. The sharp sell-off through Wed signified...

This week’s monster $19.4 bil. calendar is led in the negotiated space by $1.7 bil. San Jose Redev (taxable); $991 mil. Trinity Health; $959 mil. Miami-Dade Water; $850 mil. NYC GO; and $575 mil. Sales Tax Sec Auth (Chicago). Chicago will be a very interesting deal to watch due to...

2018 Gross Supply:

Last week we presented three scenarios for potential Muni bond supply in 2018, including best-case (no tax reform), base-case (Senate version), and worst-case (House version). This week, we unfortunately concede that tax reform stands a very high chance of passage by Congress in Dec. For the Muni market, this likely means...

Potential Alternatives to Tax-Exempt Advance Refunding:

If tax-exempt advance refunding is eliminated as of Jan 1, 2018, many issuers will likely forego advance refunding altogether, opting instead only to issue current refunding tax-exempt bonds. This would account for some loss of supply as noted above. However, depending upon the economics of a transaction and market conditions, some issuers may choose to...

Full Weekly Report

Quarterly Review

SAMUEL A. RAMIREZ & COMPANY, INC.
QUARTERLY MACROECONOMIC OUTLOOK
FINANCIAL STRATEGIES GROUP – 3rd QUARTER 2017

Dear Clients,

Please find attached Ramirez & Co.’s Quarterly Macroeconomic Outlook. In our report, we continue to monitor the US economy, global events and the Fed’s outlook on the economy and rates:

  • 2Q17 GDP growth settles at 3.1%.  The Atlanta Fed’s GPDNow forecasts 2.5% GDP growth for 3Q17, while the NY Fed’s GDP nowcast stands at 1.5%, dragged down by manufacturing numbers likely affected by the hurricanes.  The NY Fed foresees GDP recovering to 2.9% for 4Q17.  Bloomberg consensus expects 2.3% GDP growth in 3Q17 and 2.7% in 4Q17.  In spite of a series of natural disasters, economic surprise indicators in the US rise to the positive.
  • The markets, primary dealers and Fed economists all foresee one more hike in the Fed Funds rate for 2017.  After 2017YE, opinions diverge: the Fed and primary dealers see a faster pace of rate increases than the markets.  Major banks continue to see a flattening of the yield curve as they predict short-term rates rising faster than long-term rates.
  • Inflation beguiles the Fed.  Following a series of rate hikes, inflation in both services and goods tick downward.  CPI for services (less energy services) declines to 2.6% YoY in September from a 2016 average of 3.1%.  CPI for commodities (less food and energy) lowers to -1.0% YoY from a 2016 average of -0.5%.

    Members of our Financial Strategies Group, Niso Abuaf, Konstantin Semyonov and Duncan Sinclair, would be happy to discuss further any of the material with you.

    Full Quarterly Report
    TOP