Company News


Municipal

New Issues

1/15/18
$25,805,000
Los Angeles Mun Imp Corp
Senior-Manager Serials 2018-2027
1/15/18
$50,980,000
Austin Comm Coll Dist
Co-Manager Serials 2020-2038 Term 2042
1/15/18
$103,145,000
Cook Co
Co-Manager Serials 2018-2022 Terms 2034 2035

Capital Markets

New Issues

Debt

12/12/2017
$450m - Vornado Realty - CoMgr

12/5/2017
$300m - Duke Realty - CoMgr
$875m - Springleaf Finance - CoMgr

11/30/2017
$400m - New England Power - CoMgr

11/29/2017
$1.3b - Realty Income Corp - CoMgr
$300m - UDR Inc. - CoMgr

Equity

Insights

CREDIT AND MARKET STRATEGY
MUNICIPAL MARKET WEEKLY

January 8, 2018

Cautiously Constructive

Market technicals are lining up constructively for Jan and should ultimately be price supportive as strong reinvestment against lower supply kicks in (Jan effect). However, for the time being we are cautious on the market, concerned about still-low absolute rates, tight credit spreads (pg 3), and compressed ratios (e.g. 5yrs @73%). Trading accounts, which ...

Last Week

Municipals outperformed Treasuries through five years and underperformed in 10yrs and 30yrs as both markets kicked off 2018. MMD 2s30s was 6 bps steeper at 104 bps while the Treasury 2s30s was 4 bps flatter at  84 bps. Several factors were at play that caused the divergent results. Last week’s...

Muni new issue supply took a breather last week and is off to a slow start this week, which is typical for January, but particularly striking after Dec’s monster $62 bil. (a record) calendar that came ahead of monumental tax code revisions that banned advance refundings as of Jan 1. As mentioned, the Muni “January effect” is again operative despite the current 30-day visible supply of -$10 bil. We expect gross supply...

Full Weekly Report

Quarterly Review

SAMUEL A. RAMIREZ & COMPANY, INC.
QUARTERLY MACROECONOMIC OUTLOOK
FINANCIAL STRATEGIES GROUP – 3rd QUARTER 2017

Dear Clients,

Please find attached Ramirez & Co.’s Quarterly Macroeconomic Outlook. In our report, we continue to monitor the US economy, global events and the Fed’s outlook on the economy and rates:

  • 2Q17 GDP growth settles at 3.1%.  The Atlanta Fed’s GPDNow forecasts 2.5% GDP growth for 3Q17, while the NY Fed’s GDP nowcast stands at 1.5%, dragged down by manufacturing numbers likely affected by the hurricanes.  The NY Fed foresees GDP recovering to 2.9% for 4Q17.  Bloomberg consensus expects 2.3% GDP growth in 3Q17 and 2.7% in 4Q17.  In spite of a series of natural disasters, economic surprise indicators in the US rise to the positive.
  • The markets, primary dealers and Fed economists all foresee one more hike in the Fed Funds rate for 2017.  After 2017YE, opinions diverge: the Fed and primary dealers see a faster pace of rate increases than the markets.  Major banks continue to see a flattening of the yield curve as they predict short-term rates rising faster than long-term rates.
  • Inflation beguiles the Fed.  Following a series of rate hikes, inflation in both services and goods tick downward.  CPI for services (less energy services) declines to 2.6% YoY in September from a 2016 average of 3.1%.  CPI for commodities (less food and energy) lowers to -1.0% YoY from a 2016 average of -0.5%.

    Members of our Financial Strategies Group, Niso Abuaf, Konstantin Semyonov and Duncan Sinclair, would be happy to discuss further any of the material with you.

    Full Quarterly Report
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