Company News


Municipal

New Issues

7/24/17
$125,000,000
Connecticut HFA
Co-Manager Serials 2019-2028 Terms 2032 2035 2042 2047
7/24/17
$55,000,000
Centinela Valley UHSD
Senior-Manager Serials 2019-2020 Terms 2046 2056, CABs 2028-2042
7/24/17
$800,405,000
New York City
Co-Senior Manager Serials 2018-2027 Term 2028

Capital Markets

New Issues

Debt

5/31/2017
$5b - Goldman Sachs - CoMgr

5/15/2017
$700m - The Travelers - CoMgr

5/10/2017
$750m - State Street - CoMgr

5/8/2017
$6.5b - Intel Corp - CoMgr

5/3/2017
$2.25b - Citi - CoMgr

4/28/2017
$3b - PepsiCo - CoMgr

Equity

Insights

CREDIT AND MARKET STRATEGY
MUNICIPAL MARKET WEEKLY

July 10, 2017

Munis Outperform in Q2; We Like Longer Duration, Down In Credit in Q3

The rates market was volatile and curves bear steepened last week as Fed meeting minutes signaled affirmation of gradual rate hikes and balance sheet tapering amidst a tighter labor market and despite lower than expected wage growth. The North Korean missile crisis also escalated with an ostensibly successful ICBM missile launch, the ECB made hawkish comments, and Trump met Putin for the first time at the G20 summit. Treasuries in 5yrs and 30yrs ended the week off by...

2Q17:

Munis outperformed Treasuries by 10 ratios in 5 yrs, 8 ratios in 10yrs and 3 ratios in 30 yrs following average MMD bumps of 25 bps in 5 yrs and out caused by an acute net supply shortage (-$23 bil at June 30) against net fund inflows (+$4.3 bil.). While gross new issue supply was...

3Q17 Strategy

The Fed’s slow policy normalization should not disrupt economic growth as we begin the back half of 2017, which is supportive of credit and the supply-starved Muni market in particular. Economic theory suggests that long-term rates should eventually rise as a result of Fed monetary policy normalization, although the economic data has yet to materialize supporting growth in the short-term, namely wages and inflation. As long as Muni investors remain...

Supply

Over the next 30 days we see net muni market supply at -$15.33 bil., comprised of $11.77 bil. new issues, $17.51 bil. maturing, and $9.59 bil. announced calls. The states that stand to experience the largest change in outstanding debt include California (-$4.97 bil.), New York (-$1.99 bil.), Massachusetts (-$1.33 bil.), New Jersey (-$1.00 bil.), and Indiana (-$987 mil.). We continue to estimate...

Full Weekly Report

Quarterly Review

SAMUEL A. RAMIREZ & COMPANY, INC.
QUARTERLY MACROECONOMIC OUTLOOK
FINANCIAL STRATEGIES GROUP – 2nd QUARTER 2017

Dear Clients,

Please find attached Ramirez & Co.’s Quarterly Macroeconomic Outlook. In our report, we continue to monitor the US economy, global events and the Fed’s outlook on the economy and rates:

  • 1Q17 GDP growth settles at 1.4%.  The Atlanta Fed’s GPDNow and Blue Chip consensus forecast about 2.7% GDP growth for 2Q17.  Economic surprise indicators in the US slide into negative territory, bucking the markets’ optimism.  In Europe, economic surprise indicators rise.
  • The Fed hikes its benchmark rate another 25 bps in June, following similar hikes in March and December. The Fed, the markets, and major banks all agree: one more rate hike in 2017 is expected. Major banks see a flattening of the yield curve as they predict short-term rates rising faster than long-term rates.
  • The drawdown:  the Fed outlines a program to pare down its holdings of Treasuries and MBS.  The latest FOMC minutes show that the draw-down could start as soon as this Fall.

    Members of our Financial Strategies Group, Niso Abuaf, Konstantin Semyonov and Duncan Sinclair, would be happy to discuss further any of the material with you.

    Full Quarterly Report
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